Bracketology, Feb. 25: NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Projections

With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, here’s how the bracket is shaping up.

For reference, the bracket holds 32 automatic bids for conference champions (noted with their conference next to their name), and the remaining 36 are at-large selections. I am evaluating teams on how they have performed to this point in the season without projecting how they will perform in remaining games. Conference champions have been determined using KenPom projections.

In the bracket below, Duke is the overall No. 1 seed. The winners of the East and Midwest regions would face off in the national semifinal, as would the winners of the South and West regions.

There are some brief notes on my projections below, but feel free to tweet @catch_n_shoot with questions and comments.

  EAST (Washington D.C.)
Columbia1Duke
16Rider (MAAC)/St. Francis PA (NEC)
8Wofford (SoCon)
9Washington (Pac-12)
San Jose5Florida State
12Murray State (OVC)
4Wisconsin
13Hofstra (CAA)
Hartford6Iowa
11VCU (A10)
3LSU
14Vermont (A-East)
Tulsa7Buffalo (MAC)
10Ohio State
2Houston (AAC)
15Montana (Big Sky)
  MIDWEST (Kansas City)
Columbus1Kentucky (SEC)
16Bucknell (Patriot)
8Texas
9Syracuse
Hartford5Kansas State
12Seton Hall/Utah State
4Purdue
13Old Dominion (C-USA)
Des Moines6Mississippi State
11UCF
3Marquette (Big East)
14South Dakota State (Summit)
Jacksonville7Cincinnati
10Florida
2North Carolina
15Radford (Big Sky)
  SOUTH (Louisville)
Columbia1Virginia (ACC)
16Sam Houston State (Southland)
8Villanova
9Oklahoma
Salt Lake City5Maryland
12Lipscomb (A-Sun)
4Kansas
13Yale (Ivy)
Jacksonville6Virginia Tech
11Temple
3Tennessee
14Texas State (Sun Belt)
Columbus7Baylor
10St. John's
2Michigan State (Big Ten)
15Loyola Chicago (MVC)
  WEST (Anaheim)
Salt Lake City1Gonzaga (WCC)
16Prairie View A&M (SWAC)/Norfolk State (MEAC)
8TCU
9Auburn
San Jose5Nevada (MW)
12Minnesota/Belmont
4Iowa State
13New Mexico State (WAC)
Tulsa6Louisville
11Arizona State
3Texas Tech (Big 12)
14UC Irvine (Big West)
Des Moines7Ole Miss
10NC State
2Michigan
15Wright State (Horizon)

Last four in: Minnesota, Seton Hall, Utah State, Belmont

Whispering distance: Clemson, Alabama, Butler, Furman

Talking distance: Georgetown, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco

Shouting distance: Creighton, Dayton, Nebraska, UNC Greensboro, Indiana

Bracket notes:

Bids by conference:

ACC – 8

Big Ten – 8

Big 12 – 8

SEC – 7

AAC – 4

Big East – 4

MW – 2

OVC – 2

Pac-12 – 2

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